Is it the Outback, Jack?/My AP Top 25 ballot for Nov. 30

That’s my best guess, it’s a darn good guess, and I’m sticking to it until someone persuasively convinces me otherwise.

With Oregon State rolling over like dogs instead of Beavers in their game against Oregon Saturday night, that ought to put Ohio State in the BCS (sorry, Boise State), and lift up every other bowl-eligible Big Ten team.

You know what that means, Insight Bowl. You get Minnesota!!!

So, it’s Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, right? As Lee Corso says, not so friends, my fast. Or something like that.

Are the 9-3 Spartans a slam-dunk for the Orlando event? Not necessarily. But if Georgia is the SEC team, ticket sales ought not to be a problem. It’s a relatively short trip from the Peach State to Theme Park Hell. Plus, Michigan State fans travel well, as they say, and it will be MSU’s first New Year’s bowl in eight years.

That leaves 8-4 Iowa or 9-3 Northwestern for the Outback Bowl, and I can’t see the Outbackers passing up on Iowa and all its box office/hotel room power.

The unfortunate part for the Hawkeyes is the opponent in the Outback won’t be a ranked team. It almost surely would be either 7-5 LSU or 7-5 South Carolina. Now you know how Texas felt two years ago when it got a 6-6 Iowa team to play in the Alamo Bowl.

Iowa isn’t ranked, but should be. As you’ll see in the list below, I have the Hawkeyes 20th. I think Iowa is the most underrated team in the nation. As a result, I’d like to see Iowa get a less-glamorous bowl if it meant a better opponent. Namely, the Alamo.

However, if Missouri gets clocked by Oklahoma in Saturday’s Big 12 title game to end the regular-season with a 9-4 record and 2-game losing streak, never mind. It would be funny to see Iowa and Missouri together in Texas, though. The over/under on fights ending with drunks shoved into the canal on the San Antonio Riverwalk would be 147.

But if Iowa can’t play, say, an Oklahoma State in San Antone, just go to the Outback and play some SEC non-entity. Then the Alamo Bowl can decide between 9-3 Northwestern and 7-5 Wisconsin, with the team left over going to the Champs Sports Bowl to play some ACC also-ran.

It will all be better than that Minnesota-Kansas Insight Bowl.

And now, my AP Top 25 ballot for this week:

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. Florida

4. Texas

5. Utah

6. Penn State

7. Southern California

8. Texas Tech

9. Ohio State

10. Boise State

11. TCU

12. Ball State

13. Oklahoma State

14. Cincinnati

15. Oregon

16. BYU

17. Missouri

18. Pittsburgh

19. Georgia Tech

20. Iowa

21. Michigan State

22. Mississippi

23. Georgia

24. Northwestern

25. Oregon State

Iowa’s Bowl Situation: The Definitive Word (Amended)

The headline to this post fibbed. There is no definitive word on Iowa’s bowl game situation.

But you got to see outlines of kangaroos. That’s something.

Does Iowa go to the Outback Bowl if it bounces MInnesota in the Metrodome next Saturday night? Not necessarily. And I’m not convinced the Capital One Bowl is even remotely possible. If Michigan State loses at Penn State (and it’s not much of an if), MSU finishes 9-3. How the Cap One takes the Spartans over an 8-4 Iowa that lost to MSU, I have no idea.

But these are bowls.

What’s more possible is that Iowa could finish 8-4 and slide out of the Outback because the BCS doesn’t take two Big Ten teams. But that’s highly unlikely, too.  If Penn State wins over MSU and Ohio State beats Michigan like a drum, the Penn State goes to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State probably goes to another BCS game. Unless, that is, Oregon State wins its remaining two games and takes the BCS’ automatic spot for the Pac-10, with USC also in the BCS as an at-large. Which probably drops Ohio State to the Cap One, and lowers every remaining Big Ten bowl team a notch.

Oregon State plays at Arizona, then concludes with a home game against Oregon. The Beavers are pretty good and really motivated, yet I’d only call it 50/50 that they win both. But let’s say they do. Would USC really be a lock for a BCS berth if it wins out against so-so Notre Dame in Los Angeles and bad UCLA in Pasadena? Uhhhh … yes. The Fiesta Bowl would hop all over the Trojans, and Ohio State would probably fall out of the BCS.

Unless Utah loses to BYU and Boise State loses to either Nevada or Fresno State, with the latter a distinct possibility. This stuff matters. Honestly.

Are you confused enough yet?

If Iowa is 8-4 and Ohio State does get a BCS nod, I’ll go with the conventional wisdom and say the Hawkeyes reach the Outback. And against a South Carolina team that just lost 56-6 to Florida Saturday. So that’s not altogether thrilling.

Now, let’s say Iowa loses to Minnesota. What then? Chaos, that’s all.

At 9-3 after it dumps Illinois Saturday in Evanston, Northwestern can’t be bumped by a 7-5 team. The Big Ten forbids it among its bowl partners. Assuming Ohio State is in the BCS, that would mean the Outback would then have to choose 9-3 Northwestern or 8-4 Minnesota. To a bowl game, that’s like choosing being eaten by a lion or being eaten by a bear. Neither brings fans.

Well, the being eaten by a lion or bear would be a great gate attraction, but not Northwestern or Minnesota against South Carolina in Tampa.

Next up would be the Alamo Bowl. The Big Ten rule is a non-BCS bowl partner can take a Big Ten team that’s one game worse than another league team, but not if that team is 6-6. Meaning, it can take a 7-5 team over an 8-4 team. If you’re the Alamo, you take a 7-5 Iowa or a 7-5 Wisconsin over an 8-4 Minnesota and you apologize to no one.

So which would it be? I’m guessing it’s Wisconsin since the Badgers have been to San Antonio just once, that in 2002, while the Hawkeyes have made four Alamo Bowl trips, including one just two years ago. For the legend of the traveling Iowa fans, Wisconsin people have been known to flood bowl destinations with red and white.

That gives the Champs Sports Bowl in Orlando a pick between Minnesota and Iowa. How does the Champs not take an 8-4 Minnesota team that finished its season with a win over 7-5 Iowa? These are bowl games, that’s how. But as a sportswriter hoping to have something to write about besides the vapid waste that is Disney World, I want Iowa to get the best game possible. That won’t happen in the Champs Sports with an ACC also-ran.

But just in case the Champs somehow took Minnesota over Iowa and its legion of merry traveling fans, that would kick Iowa down to the Insight Bowl in Phoenix against a Big 12 team, probably either Kansas or Nebraska. Oh, wouldn’t an Iowa-Nebraska game be precious. It would beat the bejesus out of playing any ACC team in the Champs.

Iowa can make most of this conjecture go away by winning at Minnesota. It will be easier said than done.

How unpredictable is this? Here are the current bowl projections of three Web sites of note:

ESPN.com: Iowa vs. Virginia Tech in the Champs Sports.

CBS Sportsline.com: Iowa vs. South Carolina in the Outback.

Collegefootballnews.com: Iowa vs. Nebraska in the Alamo.

And that, dear friends, is the definitive word on Iowa’s bowl situation. Next: how to fix America’s economy.